No matter where you look; nationally, internationally, or even within your own community, there is no shortage of disconcerting news.
You’ve likely been following the headlines about the military conflict in the Middle East, and we wanted to reach out directly to share our perspective on what it may mean for your portfolio. The escalation of military operations has introduced new uncertainty into global markets, with oil prices climbing in response. Much of the concern centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran’s coast through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply flows. Any sustained disruption there could push energy costs higher, unsettle markets, and potentially trickle down to consumer prices.
This week, oil prices surged as the conflict raised concerns about disruptions to global crude supplies. Market volatility during geopolitical events is expected, but there are also important stabilizing factors worth noting. OPEC+ has announced it is prepared to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April. Global oil supply was already healthy heading into this event, with the International Energy Agency projecting production growth of 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. Major oil‑producing nations in the Gulf also hold approximately 3.5 million barrels per day in spare capacity that can be brought online relatively quickly.
This backdrop has shaped many of the conversations I’ve had with both clients and non‑clients alike. Across these discussions, I’ve heard recurring themes of exhaustion, cynicism, hopelessness, and frustration.
It may help to remember that volatility, both in markets and in public sentiment, is often cyclical, particularly along political lines. Long‑term data shows that when one party feels encouraged, the other often feels discouraged. This pendulum effect has been repeated from one administration to the next for generations. While the issues may change, the emotional rhythm does not.
Markets will continue to react to headlines, and the world will continue to feel chaotic at times. But progress has a long track record of outlasting chaos. Your portfolio is built around your goals and time horizons, which means reacting to short‑term headlines can be counterproductive. History has shown time and again that during periods of volatility, staying disciplined is essential.
We are monitoring the situation closely and are here for you. If you have questions or simply want to talk things through, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Amid Regional Conflict, the Strait of Hormuz Remains Critical Oil Chokepoint,"
- OPEC+ Production Adjustment Announcement, March 1, 2026
- International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, February 2026
- The National, "OPEC+ Agrees 206,000 BPD Increase as Iran Conflict Tests Supply Routes," March 1, 2026